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Maybe a part of the reason for the success of this book can be found in an October 2004 report from Teradata, a division of NCR Corporation. That report proclaims that, “Business decision-making is in crisis. The overwhelming majority of respondents, more than 70 percent, say that poor decision-making is a serious problem for business. The top casualties of poor decision-making are profits, company reputation, long-term growth, employee morale, productivity and revenue.” A decision-making book that didn’t make the Best Seller List is Why Decisions Fail, by Paul C. Nutt. In his book, Nutt explains the magnitude of the problem when he writes, “decisions fail half of the time.” If “decisions fail half of the time,” negatively affecting profits, growth, morale, productivity and revenues, the evidence would seem to indicate that interest in Decision- Making may be reaching the Tipping Point where it will become the hot new topic in business. Just think about the competitive advantage an organization could gain if they could improve their success rate to even 75% while their competition was still at 50%. There is also growing evidence that making decisions is becoming even more difficult. J. Edward Russo and Paul J. H. Schoemaker in their book Winning Decisions, point out that we are inundated with information, facing rapid change and rising uncertainty. We have few historical precedents, more frequent decisions, more important decisions, conflicting goals, more opportunities for miscommunication, fewer opportunities to correct mistakes and higher stakes. All this is contributing to even more difficult decision-making. It would appear that our existing methods for making decisions are inadequate in today’s fast paced, techno enhanced, highly competitive world and the time is right for a new approach that facilitates better decisions…faster. The question facing us then is, To Blink or not to Blink, that is the question. Does Gladwell have a better solution? In Blink, Gladwell mixes scientific research with idealism to suggest that intuition is often superior to reasoned thinking. Richard A. Posner, judge of the United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit and a senior lecturer at the University of Chicago Law School, suggests that there are two types of thinking. One is intuition or hunches, snap judgments, emotional reactions, and first impressions--in short, instant responses to sensations. The second type of thinking is reasoned or articulate and is the domain of logic, deliberation, reasoned discussion, and scientific method. Reasoned or articulate thinking is the model of rationality, while intuitive thinking is often seen as primitive. There are numerous examples in Blink of what, on the surface, might appear to be intuitive thinking. Posner on the other hand suggests that there are many instances when the answer appears in a flash like intuition, but are in fact are the result of deliberative processes that have become unconscious simply by becoming habitual. Gladwell and Posner agree that we are drowning in information. They also agree on unconscious cognition regardless of whether from intuition or experience and habit. Most importantly, they have both created more awareness of the real problem – the need for an approach to decision-making with improved results.
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More Articles:1. What is the Best Incentive? By Bill Ritchie Incentive schemes have been much criticised in recent years, and it is quite true that some schemes have been singularly unsuccessful. Their failure, however, has often been the result of inadequate planning, rushed introduction, or not thinking through such a scheme properly. These points should not be used to generally condemn other more successful applications.Whether any particular incentive scheme achieves long term success depends initially on the thoroughness with which the current work… 2. 4 Steps to Success In Life, Business, The Universe And Everything By Keith Longmire Everyone wants to succeed in life. And no one starts a business of any sort, on-line or off-line, wanting to fail.Yet the sad fact is that 80% of offline and 97% of internet businesses will fail in the first year. 84% of internet businesses will never make any income at all.So what can you do to ensure your success?Luckily these four simple (never confuse simple with easy), tried and tested steps dramatically increases your chances.1. Set Out Your GoalsSuccess means something different to us … 3. Managing People - No More Mr Tough Guy By Alan Fairweather I believe the media and our culture sends the wrong messages about how to manage people and this makes it difficult for Business Owners and Managers.We've all heard the old cliché "nice guys don't finish first" and that has a huge impact on how managers deal with their people. We're led to believe that successful managers are tough, courageous "no nonsense" type of people. And if you're weak or soft with your people, then you'll get walked on and taken advantage of.A manager will often look at… 4. Performance Appraisals: Nightmares or Sweet Dreams By Marcia Zidle Some managers think of performance appraisal meetings and recollections of torn Achilles' heels or root canals immediately surface. They're sort of "been there, don't want to go again" situations. The more it can be put off, the better. Study after study shows that both managers and employees are very dissatisfied with performance appraisals and often view them as a necessary evil to get over with quickly. Here are seven strategies to turn performance management from a nightmare into a sweet… |
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